Boeing for Belavia: Minsk said it all, Washington nothing

On Saturday 31 October, in the early afternoon (Paris time), Belarus's state news agency BELTA published a statement by Igor Cherginets, Belavia's director general: "today", he said, the US Department of Commerce gave Boeing permission to work with the airline. He promised direct access to spare parts and software, and talks on buying aircraft from Boeing.

Cherginets credited the decision to talks between Alexander Lukashenko and a US delegation. Half an hour later, BELTA quoted Valentin Rybakov, Belarus's permanent representative to the UN: the licence, he said, was granted "literally yesterday". The two do not agree on the date: 30 or 31 October, which was a Saturday.

Every source is Belarusian

RIA Novosti, a Russian state news agency, and the daily Kommersant ran the story the same day; Kommersant quotes Valentin Rybakov… citing BELTA. The LB.ua and Belarus Virtual Consult reports refer to the same statements, with no US source.

On the US side, nothing as of 2 November: no BIS statement, no Federal Register notice mentioning Belavia in 2026, nothing in Boeing's newsroom. According to the Belarusian side, then, and no US confirmation to date.

That silence proves nothing. US export control law requires licence applications and licences themselves to be withheld from public disclosure, unless the Commerce Secretary determines that releasing them is in the national interest. A licence granted to Boeing could exist without leaving any public trace.

A thaw that began in 2025

On 11 September 2025, Minsk freed 52 political prisoners after a visit by US envoy John Coale; in return, Washington eased its sanctions on Belavia, the BBC reported. The same day, the Treasury (OFAC) issued a general licence authorizing transactions with the airline. On 4 November 2025, it removed Belavia from its sanctions list (SDN) and, through another licence, authorized transactions involving three aircraft linked to President Alexander Lukashenko.

But the Treasury is not Commerce: the OFAC licence does not exempt anyone from Commerce's Export Administration Regulations (EAR). It was BIS that, in September 2025, authorized by letter flights and maintenance of Belavia's Boeings; in November, it lifted the bar on servicing them and announced a "case-by-case" review of licence applications for aircraft and parts destined for the airline, to "guard against the risk of diversion".

A licence to Boeing would therefore be consistent with the policy set out in 2025. But the BIS letter does not authorize exports of such items to Russia or Belarus: those shipments fall under separate licences, reviewed one by one.

Russia, missing from a list

In June 2022, BIS stripped Belavia of its export privileges, accusing it of flying Boeings without the required authorization, notably between Minsk and Moscow or St Petersburg. The order was renewed until 3 December 2024, according to Commerce's consolidated screening list; we found no renewal published since.

One detail of the BIS letters calls for an answer. In September 2025, flights to Russia were excluded from the authorization, like those to Cuba or Iran. In the version of 3 November 2025, Russia no longer appears on that list. BIS says it modified "authorized destinations", without saying why. Carrying items subject to US rules on board remains prohibited without authorization, "including" items in support of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Europe, still sanctioning

Belavia has been on Annex I of EU Regulation 765/2006 since 2 December 2021, listed at the time notably for bringing migrants to the Union's borders; the current statement of reasons says it benefits from and supports the regime. Its funds are frozen there, and making funds or economic resources available to it is prohibited. The same regulation bans selling certain aviation goods to Belarus. The regime has been extended until 28 February 2027.

A US licence changes nothing in those rules. How do they fit with a Boeing supply chain that includes European suppliers? No authority has explained this publicly to date.

What holds up on their side

An airliner maintained with original parts flies more safely than one that is not: the flight-safety argument is real, and BIS says it aims to support Belavia's "normal commercial passenger operations". The thaw is a deliberate policy, obtained in exchange for prisoner releases. And the absence of a public text does not mean the absence of conditions.

Minsk supplied the names, the scope, and even two dates. Washington has published nothing. Until Commerce or Boeing say what this licence contains, and what it forbids, it will remain a Belarusian announcement.